A simple solution to end the retail fuel pricing mess...

Domestic retail fuel prices (largely petrol and diesel) were to be deregulated (and made market determined) long back... But they haven't and have landed up in a big soup - the cost of subsidies on government finances is large, PSU oil marketing companies were on the verge of bankruptcy a few months back... And though in principle, everyone agrees that the subsidies on petrol and diesel prices cannot continue at this rate, there isn't a good alternative. So here's one simple solution...

Firstly, the objective of any domestic pricing regime (lets accept that domestic fuel prices cannot be completely deregulated for at least the next few years) is

1. Prices should correspond to international prices, but not be as volatile as international crude prices
2. Oil PSUs must realise a fair price for their product, lest we make them bankrupt...
3. The pricing mechanism should be transparent and not subjective prerogative of the government in charge or oil minister in charge.

So the solution i have is that domestic prices be linked to a 'moving average' of international oil price with domestic prices being rest weekly or monthly. The moving average could be a 30 day moving average or 60 day or 90 day or 365 day depending on the smoothening we desire. Obviously, the higher the period, the smoother the domestic prices relative to international prices.

Now, this moving average solves all problems. It makes domestic prices respond to rising or falling international price of Oil - but depending on the smoothening factor with a lag. So week to week or month to month domestic prices don't jump around in volatile manner and so consumers are protected from the volatility. It ensures that Oil companies recover a fair price, there will be a lag but it will work both ways, they will earn slightly less in an upcycle of oil prices and slightly more when prices correct. The mechanism is transparent in that the reset period and smoothening factor are both known ex ante and so not subject to whims and fancies of incumbent government or oil minister.

State of our (medical) education system...

While, there can be 'N' number of stories of the state of our education system, one of the more harrowing stories is this:

My sister is studying dentistry. She has completed her Bachelors degree and wants to pursue her Masters in that field. But to her horrow, she finds that in the entire state of Maharashtra there are just 15 (yes fifteen) seats for Masters in government colleges. Of these 15, 7 are under various reserved categories so there are just 8 (eight in the whole state of Maharashtra) seats for doing Masters in Dentistry. Her friends in her current college (where she is studied for her Bacherlors) number considerably more than 15. So the available seats are not even enough to accomodate the bachelors output of a single college.

Now if my sister doesnt manage to occupy one of those 15 seats (8 actually as she belongs to open category), either she has to go abroad for her Masters which is extremely expensive proposition; take admission to one of the private colleges which are even more expensive (Fees in any decent private college are ~US$100,000; an MBA from Harvard is cheaper) or NOT pursue her Masters.

Given what I know of my sister, she is most likely to choose the final option in case she does not make it to the government colleges. Now that would be a very sad thing...

Growth is really scarce this year....

It is remarkable how many countries are likely to contract this year. Of the 55 countries in the table below, 38 (almost 70%) are expected to contract. And it is not just Developed countries but many EM countries and many even in our own backyard – Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines are all likely to contract this year. (Though skepticism about these estimates is justified, in all likelihood these estimates are likely to prove optimistic rather than pessimistic…

The top 3 countries in terms of maximum contraction of their economy – Iceland (9.7%), Latvia (8%) and Singapore (7.2%). The top 3 fastest growing economies this year – China (6%), India (5%), Egypt (4.9%). (Egypt is very surprising given that it is almost entirely dependent completely on Suez Canal (global trade) and Tourism (global incomes) both of which will take a beating this year.)

Source: Economist