tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-199432882024-03-14T12:54:45.428+05:30Unreasonable Thoughts"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man." - George Bernard Shaw. My friends at times call my behavior as 'the desperate quest to be unreasonable.' But I like it that way. What follows in this blog are some "Unreasonable thoughts"The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-82040856554508884362010-01-18T07:07:00.000+05:302010-01-18T07:06:14.556+05:30Student suicides: A neglected issueI recently read (in the context of the release of a marathi movie which criticises education system) that between 2004-2006 there were 16000 student suicides, that's more than 10 per day.
<br>
<br>If true that's a truly astounding and troubling statistic. I would guess this at least parallels the farmer suicides in terms of scale. And while it is possible at attempt to remedy the farmer suicides through tangible measures and indeed it has definately been attempted thru agri-debt waivers etc there is no such easy tangible solns for student suicides.
<br>
<br>Sent from BlackBerry® on AirtelThe Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-65345611267685001152010-01-02T22:24:00.001+05:302010-01-02T22:24:38.255+05:30New Year ResolutionThink positive, eat healthy and stay alert...
<br>Sent from BlackBerry® on AirtelThe Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-17385048780530444942009-12-29T07:50:00.001+05:302009-12-29T07:50:10.469+05:30Are we a class oriented society?We have a lift in our office building which is reserved exclusively for directors. So even as lesser mortals queue up for lift, this lift will stay put.
<br>
<br>And it is not as if this is a legacy issue (which it might for I have seen this directors lift in a few old buildings) as ours is a brand new building - less than a year old...
<br>
<br>Am I generalising? I hope so...
<br>Sent from BlackBerry® on AirtelThe Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-2305748254151427122009-12-16T12:42:00.001+05:302009-12-16T13:36:16.762+05:30Capitalist temples?Does charging of differential entry fee (or any fee at all) and providing differential access to 'god' based on what denomination entry fee a devotee has paid make a temple a capitalist one? Does a capitalist temple become a profit seeking temple? Does the place remain a temple at all in the first place then?<br /><br />Temples are meant to be institutions where all humans are equal. Rich or Poor, Old or Young, Beautiful or Ugly; God treats all his worshipers equally we are told or is it? Is it like all are equal but some are more equal type of equality that we are looking at?<br /><br />I recently visited a temple (Golden temple at Vellore, click <a href="http://www.sripuram.org/">here</a> for its website) where there were at least three types of entry tickets - Free, Rs100, Rs250. People who wanted free entry had the longest walk to see the idol those who paid Rs250 had shorter walks. People with no entry ticket did not get close to the idol, they could see the idol from around 20 feet away while those who paid Rs100 or Rs250 got to within 10 feet of the idol.The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-53374708548463350212009-03-09T18:38:00.000+05:302009-03-09T18:39:21.867+05:30CNBC and Financial advice - this is really hilarious...<style type='text/css'>.cc_box a:hover .cc_home{background:url('http://www.comedycentral.com/comedycentral/video/assets/syndicated-logo-over.png') !important;}.cc_links a{color:#b9b9b9;text-decoration:none;}.cc_show a{color:#707070;text-decoration:none;}.cc_title a{color:#868686;text-decoration:none;}.cc_links a:hover{color:#67bee2;text-decoration:underline;}</style><div class='cc_box' style='position:relative'><a href='http://www.comedycentral.com' target='_blank' style='display:inline; float:left; width:60px; height:31px;'><div class='cc_home' style='float:left; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-width:1px 0px 0px 1px; width:60px; height:31px; background:url("http://www.comedycentral.com/comedycentral/video/assets/syndicated-logo-out.png");'></div></a><div style='font:bold 10px Arial,Helvetica,Verdana,sans-serif; float:left; width:299px; height:31px; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-width:1px 1px 0px 0px; overflow:hidden; color:#707070;'><div class='cc_show' style='position:relative; background-color:#e5e5e5;padding-left:3px; height:14px; padding-top:2px; overflow:hidden;'><a href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/' target='_blank'>The Daily Show With Jon Stewart</a><span style='position:absolute; top:2px; right:3px;'>M - Th 11p / 10c</span></div><div class='cc_title' style='font-size:11px; color:#868686; background-color:#f5f5f5; padding:3px; padding-top:1px; line-height:14px; height:21px; overflow:hidden;'><a href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220252&title=cnbc-gives-financial-advice' target='_blank'>CNBC Gives Financial Advice</a></div></div><embed style='float:left; clear:left;' src='http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:220252' width='360' height='301' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' wmode='window' allowFullscreen='true' allowscriptaccess='always' allownetworking='all' flashvars='autoPlay=false' bgcolor='#000000'></embed><div class='cc_links' style='float:left; clear:left; width:358px; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-top:0px; font:10px Arial,Helvetica,Verdana,sans-serif; color:#b9b9b9; background-color:#f5f5f5;'><div style='width:177px; float:left; padding-left:3px;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml'>Daily Show Full Episodes</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://www.comedycentral.com/shows/important_things/index.jhtml'>Important Things With Demetri Martin</a></div><div style='width:177px; float:left;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.indecisionforever.com'>Political Humor</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://www.jokes.com'>Joke of the Day</a></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div>The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-33736326124464167632009-03-03T09:06:00.001+05:302009-03-03T09:09:12.110+05:30My contribution to the literary world...<meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cashutosh%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Palatino Linotype"; panose-1:2 4 5 2 5 5 5 3 3 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-536870009 1073741843 0 0 415 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} span.EmailStyle15 {mso-style-type:personal; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Palatino Linotype"; mso-ascii-font-family:"Palatino Linotype"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Palatino Linotype"; color:windowtext; font-weight:normal; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; text-underline:none; text-decoration:none; text-line-through:none;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:10;">"Dow Jones Index sat on a bubble<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:10;">
<br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:10;">Dow Jones Index had a great fall,<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:10;">
<br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-size:10;">All Bernanke's and Obama’s men,<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:10;" ><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">
<br /></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:10;" ><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Could not put Dow Jones together again…"</span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="">
<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Anybody cheering me for the booker?</span>
<br /><span style=";font-family:";font-size:10;" ><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-90764735711263810492009-03-01T00:10:00.003+05:302009-03-01T00:15:35.140+05:30Rottenest Financial Institution - And the award goes to...<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >AIG as per Joe Nocera of the NYTimes <a href="http://executivesuite.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/27/is-aig-the-worst-of-them-all/">here</a> with its sins listed <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/28/business/28nocera.html?_r=1&ref=business&pagewanted=all">here</a></span>The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-1778608500557355582009-02-28T09:20:00.003+05:302009-03-01T00:14:31.582+05:30US Budget...<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >This is just so funny, I just can’t stop laughing. But it also packs a lot of meaning into it...</span><br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TvmSYkWxUCw/Sai1GoMndOI/AAAAAAAAC8E/2ZvrtTZbFPk/s1600-h/KAL.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5307691286330307810" style="width: 400px; height: 252px;" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TvmSYkWxUCw/Sai1GoMndOI/AAAAAAAAC8E/2ZvrtTZbFPk/s400/KAL.jpg" border="0" /></a>The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-81484986232184994152009-02-27T09:16:00.005+05:302009-02-28T10:45:37.437+05:30Government's fiscal profligacy - can't have heads I win, tails you loseGovernment recently announced another round of fiscal stimulus (indirect tax cuts) and it was followed by another round of criticism and concerns over spiraling fiscal deficit. Before the tax cuts, government was criticised for not providing any stimulus to the economy. Well, we cant have it both...<br /><br />Either you provide stimulus to the economy (which would involve in varying degrees a combination of tax cuts or spending increases) or you worry about rising fiscal deficit. It cannot be a situation where if it provides stimulus (or attempts to) you criticise it for higher fiscal deficit and if it does not provide you criticise it for not doing enough for the economy.<br /><br />The issue of fiscal deficit is important (I am by nature a fiscal conservative, would prefer very low or balanced government accounts) but we should not get uncessarily worried over high fiscal deficit. The problem of high fiscal deficit crowding out private investment or causing high inflation etc would arise only when the economy starts to recover.<br /><br />If the basic hypothesis is that the current slowdown is very severe and unless the government provides the stimulus things will get far worse, then the current worry of slowdown precedes future worries of high fiscal deficit. The thought process then has to be lets first get out of the current crisis and worry about future crisis later on.<br /><br />One can logically criticise the government on its state of finances only if the basis hypothesis is that either the growth deceleration is short lived and given the steps already taken growth will recover within a reasonably short time (3-4 quarters) by itself or that the growth deterioration is not severe enough to warrant the fiscal deterioration of the magnitude that we are seeing. Growth will slow from unsustainable levels (>9%) to more sustainable trend level and thus we should keep the house in order to be prepared for the next cyclical uptick. If this is not the basic hypothesis, criticism of the government on its fiscal profligacy is unjustified in my view...The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-12607094918184016442009-02-22T09:07:00.002+05:302009-02-22T09:28:30.522+05:30A simple solution to end the retail fuel pricing mess...Domestic retail fuel prices (largely petrol and diesel) were to be deregulated (and made market determined) long back... But they haven't and have landed up in a big soup - the cost of subsidies on government finances is large, PSU oil marketing companies were on the verge of bankruptcy a few months back... And though in principle, everyone agrees that the subsidies on petrol and diesel prices cannot continue at this rate, there isn't a good alternative. So here's one simple solution...<br /><br />Firstly, the objective of any domestic pricing regime (lets accept that domestic fuel prices cannot be completely deregulated for at least the next few years) is<br /><br />1. Prices should correspond to international prices, but not be as volatile as international crude prices<br />2. Oil PSUs must realise a fair price for their product, lest we make them bankrupt...<br />3. The pricing mechanism should be transparent and not subjective prerogative of the government in charge or oil minister in charge.<br /><br />So the solution i have is that domestic prices be linked to a 'moving average' of international oil price with domestic prices being rest weekly or monthly. The moving average could be a 30 day moving average or 60 day or 90 day or 365 day depending on the smoothening we desire. Obviously, the higher the period, the smoother the domestic prices relative to international prices.<br /><br />Now, this moving average solves all problems. It makes domestic prices respond to rising or falling international price of Oil - but depending on the smoothening factor with a lag. So week to week or month to month domestic prices don't jump around in volatile manner and so consumers are protected from the volatility. It ensures that Oil companies recover a fair price, there will be a lag but it will work both ways, they will earn slightly less in an upcycle of oil prices and slightly more when prices correct. The mechanism is transparent in that the reset period and smoothening factor are both known ex ante and so not subject to whims and fancies of incumbent government or oil minister.The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-39837033942141440202009-02-22T08:43:00.002+05:302009-02-22T08:57:19.257+05:30State of our (medical) education system...While, there can be 'N' number of stories of the state of our education system, one of the more harrowing stories is this:<br /><br />My sister is studying dentistry. She has completed her Bachelors degree and wants to pursue her Masters in that field. But to her horrow, she finds that in the entire state of Maharashtra there are just 15 (yes fifteen) seats for Masters in government colleges. Of these 15, 7 are under various reserved categories so there are just 8 (eight in the whole state of Maharashtra) seats for doing Masters in Dentistry. Her friends in her current college (where she is studied for her Bacherlors) number considerably more than 15. So the available seats are not even enough to accomodate the bachelors output of a single college.<br /><br />Now if my sister doesnt manage to occupy one of those 15 seats (8 actually as she belongs to open category), either she has to go abroad for her Masters which is extremely expensive proposition; take admission to one of the private colleges which are even more expensive (Fees in any decent private college are ~US$100,000; an MBA from Harvard is cheaper) or NOT pursue her Masters.<br /><br />Given what I know of my sister, she is most likely to choose the final option in case she does not make it to the government colleges. Now that would be a very sad thing...The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-89121845679732159292009-02-19T10:17:00.007+05:302009-02-19T10:53:45.849+05:30Growth is really scarce this year....<p class="MsoNormal" face="verdana"><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cashutosh%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id="ieooui"></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Verdana; panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:536871559 0 0 0 415 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cashutosh%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id="ieooui"></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Verdana; panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:536871559 0 0 0 415 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cashutosh%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id="ieooui"></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Trebuchet MS"; panose-1:2 11 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:647 0 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cashutosh%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id="ieooui"></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Trebuchet MS"; panose-1:2 11 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:647 0 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cashutosh%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id="ieooui"></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Palatino Linotype"; panose-1:2 4 5 2 5 5 5 3 3 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-536870009 1073741843 0 0 415 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cashutosh%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id="ieooui"></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Palatino Linotype"; panose-1:2 4 5 2 5 5 5 3 3 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-536870009 1073741843 0 0 415 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Palatino Linotype";"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cashutosh%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id="ieooui"></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Georgia; panose-1:2 4 5 2 5 4 5 2 3 3; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:647 0 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cashutosh%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id="ieooui"></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Georgia; panose-1:2 4 5 2 5 4 5 2 3 3; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:647 0 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Georgia;">It is remarkable how many countries are likely to contract this year. Of the 55 countries in the table below, 38 (almost 70%) are expected to contract. And it is not just Developed countries but many EM countries and many even in our own backyard – <st1:country-region st="on">Korea</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region st="on">Taiwan</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region st="on">Thailand</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region st="on">Malaysia</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Philippines</st1:place></st1:country-region> are all likely to contract this year. (Though skepticism about these estimates is justified, in all likelihood these estimates are likely to prove optimistic rather than pessimistic…
<br />
<br />The top 3 countries in terms of maximum contraction of their economy – <st1:country-region st="on">Iceland</st1:country-region> (9.7%), <st1:country-region st="on">Latvia</st1:country-region> (8%) and <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Singapore</st1:place></st1:country-region> (7.2%). The top 3 fastest growing economies this year – <st1:country-region st="on">China</st1:country-region> (6%), <st1:country-region st="on">India</st1:country-region> (5%), <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Egypt</st1:place></st1:country-region> (4.9%). (<st1:country-region st="on">Egypt</st1:country-region> is very surprising given that it is almost entirely dependent completely on <st1:place st="on">Suez Canal</st1:place> (global trade) and Tourism (global incomes) both of which will take a beating this year.)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Georgia;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i style=""><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Georgia;">Source: Economist<o:p></o:p></span></i></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i style=""><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TvmSYkWxUCw/SZzopyyKbxI/AAAAAAAAC78/aywoS3sr-tA/s1600-h/scarcegrowth1.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 223px; height: 400px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TvmSYkWxUCw/SZzopyyKbxI/AAAAAAAAC78/aywoS3sr-tA/s400/scarcegrowth1.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5304370265840054034" border="0" /></a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span style=""><span style="font-style: italic;">
<br /></span></span></i></span></p>The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-77551053160856729682009-01-24T00:29:00.000+05:302009-01-25T00:30:55.157+05:30Slumdog Millionaire - Lesson in non-linearitySlumdog Millionaire offers a great example in non-linearity which is so prevalent in the world but so difficult to fathom or make ourselves come to terms with it.<br /><br />Here we were believing that the only source of an Oscar for India is in the 'Best Foreign Movie' category and then came Slumdog (a good movie no doubt) a de-facto Indian movie with not 1 but a stagerring 10 Oscar nominations with three nominations for AR Rahman including one jointly with Gulzaar. It has already won 4 Golden Globe's including 1 for AR Rahman.<br /><br />What a remarkable turn of events!<br /><br />It is this non-linearity (life jumps; does not progress steadily in a linear manner) which is what I find most difficult to come to terms with. Non-linearity is everywhere, take financial markets (who predicted such staggering collapse of world economy), politics (see how the terrorist attack of 26/11 was a non-linear event in regional politics), sports (who predicted India of all teams would win the T20 world cup that too in bouncy grounds of SA).<br /><br />Unfortunately our minds are by design extremely incapable of handling non-linearity; something we witness on almost daily basis - which causes a lot of problems and frustrations!The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-6934467857418678382009-01-23T00:22:00.000+05:302009-01-25T00:32:59.804+05:30Some food for thought...<span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:georgia;">Almost nobody predicted even a simple recession leave predicting a recession of this magnitude, but almost everyone is predicting a recovery beginning 2H of this year…<o:p><br /><br />If I look up on Bloomberg's January economic survey, out of 60 respondents, just 11 expect US economy to contract in 3Q of this year and just one contributor expects US economy to contract in 4Q of this year (In contrast almost everyone expects US economy to contract in 1Q and 2Q of the year).<br /></o:p><o:p><br />Similarly almost nobody predicted a fall in equity prices of this magnitude, but almost everyone now thinks that they have fallen so much, that we are close to the bottom if not already at the bottom. They however did not apply reverse logic. When equity markets rose sharply between 2004-2007, they did not expect equity market to fall simply because it had risen so much :)<br /><br />What does that say about the skill of 'analysts' in forecasting?</o:p></span></span>The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-71593186777059086542009-01-22T00:27:00.000+05:302009-01-25T00:29:35.139+05:30Satyam saga...Firstly, what is NOT surprising about the Satyam saga is that an Indian company has acknowledged that it has cooked its books. What IS surprising is that it was an IT company (listed on NYSE and subject to SEC regulations et al) which sprang the confession.<br /><br />What IS also surprising is the shock that has been expressed by investors and regulators et al. It is common knowledge that a whole bunch of companies employ aggressive accounting at the minimum and do outright fudging in some cases.<br /><br />What IS surprising is the swiftness with which the central government has acted (leaving aside the laxity in the first couple of days; but that largely reflects not knowing what to do as they have never faced such a situation before.), replacing its board with a new board which carries significant credibility - Kudos to the govt for their actions so far.<br /><br />The SEBI proposal to have a peer audit of all large companies (Sensex, Nifty) is welcome but that audit needs to be truly independent and it must be paid for by the SEBI or the exchanges. In fact this is a good time to revist the practice of annual audit being paid for by the company (the management effectively). Its also a good time to increase disclosures...<br /><br />Overall this will obviously create a negative impact about India globally amongst investor community but the speed with which the situation is resolved and guilty punished and steps taken to reassure that other large companies' books are not cooked is crucial in determining how long lasting the impact would be...The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-75331136256472883332008-11-16T00:16:00.000+05:302009-01-25T00:19:40.845+05:30the BUBBLE that wasn'tFlash back to April or May of this year and consensus at least among the people I interact was convinced of a 'bubble' in commodities and especially Oil. Even amidst signs of a slowdown in global growth, Oil was scaling new heights coming close to US$150/bbl. It was argued that the rise in Oil amidst signs of slowdown in global growth was proof enough of Oil market being manipulated by hedge funds and speculators in general.<br /><br />I have never been a taker of bubble in Oil market. Firstly, for technical reasons; One must differentiate between something being overvalued and something being a bubble. While in both cases, prices are significantly above what fundamentals justify but the key difference between the two lies in degree. Every bubble leads from over valuation but not every valuation is a case of a bubble. We should not use the term bubble lightly. Over valuation (as is under valuation) is very frequent in financial markets but bubbles are not so frequent. Two examples. Property bubble in Japan – after it collapsed, land prices fell year over year basis for 15 years in a row from 1991 to 2005. Six years after the dot com bubble collapsed, Nasdaq at its peak (of last year) was still one-half away from its peak during dotcom bubble.<br /><br />However now that price of Oil has fallen 60% from its peak, I still do not believe that Oil reflected a bubble, largely because most assets have fallen significantly. Equities across the board are down over 50%; even some currencies are down 40-50%. Indeed as events have turned out, it was not Oil that was a bubble but the entire edifice on which the ‘modern’ finance was built was a bubble. It has burst, world economy is on the brink of a global recession so its only reasonable that equities and commodities alike fall.<br /><br />However, being a believer in the concept of falsifiability, I my belief that Oil was not a bubble has to be falsifiable. I will concede that Oil was a bubble if as economic growth decelerates, Oil slides down to its previous cycle lows (it bottomed ~US$10/bbl) of late 1990s and when the recovery happens Oil as will other commodities will rise but they do not go anywhere close to the highs witnessed this year. In a way if Oil (and this is true for most other commodities) resumes its ‘normal’ cyclical behavior in the next cycle (range of say US$10-US$50), I would concede that Oil was a bubble…<br /><br />Let’s wait and watch…The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-2611082205043187422008-09-20T00:14:00.000+05:302009-01-25T00:16:36.738+05:30An Incovenient Truth - Its all about leverage<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">"As to new financial instruments, however experience establishes a firm rule, and on few economic matters is understanding more important and frequently, indeed, more slight. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span">The rule is that financial operations do not lend themselves to innovation.</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span"> What is recurrently so described and celebrated is, without exception, a small variation on an established design, one that owes its distinctive character to aforementioned brevity of financial memory. The world of finance hails the invention of the wheel over and over again, often in a slightly more unstable version. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span">All financial innovation involves, in one form or other, the creation of debt secured in greater or lesser adequacy by real assets</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span">. ...</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span">All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another, has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of payment.</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span">"</span></span></span><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">So said John Kenneth Galbraith in his famous 1990 book "A Short History of Financial Euphoria" </span></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">"</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 17px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">We learn from history that we learn nothing from history."</span></span></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 17px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 17px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">So said George Bernard Shaw</span></span></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 17px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 17px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Hath I say more?</span></span></span></span></span></div>The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-26889247542130641762008-09-20T00:11:00.000+05:302009-01-25T00:14:13.002+05:30Destination unknown - global financial crisis<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 13px; line-height: 20px;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Conventional market logic argues that whether a stock is attractive or not is a function of price - at a given price any stock will be attractive for buying and at another given price the same stock would be extremely expensive to own.</span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">However in the current environment, I would argue that this logic has been turned upside down (so far as it pertains to financial stocks in developed markets). </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">There have been many instances of a solid franchises falling 50% and then another 50% and in a few cases another 50% (Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, Bear, </span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">AIG</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">, Merrill, </span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">HBOS</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">, Morgan Stanley,</span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">UBS</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">)... The inherent complexity of the situation is beyond the ability to fathom for even the most sophisticated investors. No one knows whats going on and no one knows where things are going to blow up next. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Thus the present situation is quite unlike a conventional economic cycle where things get bad but we know they will turn for the better. There will be a few years of disappointing performance but things will get better. Even now things will get better, but when established franchises go bankrupt (and more than one such franchises has met such a fate) in a matter of days things are unlike anything we have witnessed in recent past. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Trying to pick a bottom is crossing the thin line between being brave and being foolish. Its akin to shooting in the dark - we may hit the target but there can be little to take credit for. In this regard we are in the midst of a journey into the unknown - with too many unknown unknowns out there...</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">The dust will settle eventually, but it needs to settle before we can fathom the true scale of the crisis that has hit us. But as some guest mentioned on </span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">CNBC</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> the other day, its too late to panic as well...</span></span></div></span>The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-30792586738771675932008-09-14T00:06:00.000+05:302009-01-25T00:10:42.850+05:30The Fate of Irrefutable Presumptions<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 20px; font-size: 13px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">If I look back at the end of last year or start of this year, there were a many 'cannot go wrong' assumptions about how things will unfold through the course of the year.</span></span></span></span></span><div><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Foreigners would continue buying Indian stocks - they</span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">don't</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> have any options in a slowing global growth environment (Oh the middle east guys are sitting on over trillion dollars of </span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">petro</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">-dollar liquidity - where will it go?)</span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">India is immune to slowdown globally - we will continue to grow around 8-9%</span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Interest rates in India are headed lower due to lower inflation and widening interest rate differential to global interest rates</span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">If commodity prices correct, India would be a natural beneficiary from an equity market standpoint)</span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Valuations do not matter when you are swimming in sea of liquidity</span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Rupee is in a secular uptrend - reflecting robust capital flows, structural improvement in trade balance once gas discoveries come on stream etc...</span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">One by one, all these assumptions have come crashing...</span></span></span></span></span></div><div><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Foreigners have actually on a net basis sold over US$7</span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">bn</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> of stock. Overall capital flows would likely be down 50% in FY09 over FY08</span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">India's growth is slowing - and part of the reason for slowdown is higher commodity price led inflation leading to RBI tightening</span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">India's interest rates have actually increased - and increased significantly. It was naive to argue that on one hand our growth is </span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">uncorrelated</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> to global growth but our monetary policy is...</span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Commodity prices have corrected - Oil is down 30% from peak and from a market </span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">perspective</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> we are less than 10% away from the lows of this year</span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Valuations do matter - the worst performing stocks are amongst the most expensive - valuations may not be</span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">correlated</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> to fundamentals on a day to day basis - but they</span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">do cross</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> paths every now and then...</span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Rupee is amongst the second worst performing currency amongst the major emerging markets and it has depreciated in the recent past even as oil has come off sharply - anyone who argues that in the short or even medium term currencies behave in accordance with trade flows needs to wake up...</span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">What next? What are the current 'cannot go wrong' assumptions in the market? In my view, the following:</span></span></span></span></span></div><div><ul><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">FII's</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> have sold US$7</span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">bn</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> in the first eight months of the year - rest of the year is unlikely to see selling anything close to that magnitude </span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">All I would say is after pausing for July and august when </span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">FII's</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">cumulatively sold under </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">US$1</span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">bn</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> of equities, in the first two weeks of September they have sold almost US$1</span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">bn. Even after the selling and market crash FII's own over US$150bn of Indian stock!</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></span></span></span><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">FY09 is a </span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">aberration</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> - commodity prices will come down and so will interest rates and so in FY10 we will resume growth momentum with growth back in 8-9% range</span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">In </span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">FY10 there is a real chance of growth slipping below 7% in my view - financial</span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">community is in </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">denial mode over growth slowdown. If growth does not slowdown, you </span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">will get even</span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">higher </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">interest rates to curb inflation. Growth has to slowdown.</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Interest rates will come down; inflation is already showing signs of moderating as commodity prices moderate</span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">It is absurd to expect RBI to even signal softer monetary policy when inflation (as </span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">measured by </span></span></span></span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">WPI</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">) is running above 12% and growth still around 8%. Four weeks of </span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">inflation hovering around 12-12.5% does not imply inflation has moderated. Only caveat I would add would be a major overseas event which forces RBI to backoff purely due to 'liquidity' reasons.</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span">In my view, as the rest of the year unfolds, even these three 'cannot go wrong' assumptions would come in question and fall apart like many others have done so far this year...</span></span></span></span></span></div></span>The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-84272397146072139552007-09-10T15:53:00.000+05:302007-09-10T16:49:01.912+05:30Flipside of corporate honeymoonI resigned from my current job couple of weeks back and that began my 30 day notice period otherwise known as corporate honeymoon.<br /><br />During this period no one asks you what time you come in, what time you leave, since typically there is a handover involved you dump a lot of the work on the new guy. In mycase since my team is in a mess, there is no replacement for me and thus there is no handover involved (there is no work either).<br /><br />Now a lot of people enjoy this period, why wouldn't one. You have no responsibilities and no deliverables and you still get paid! However, I have been wanting to get out of this place sooner and not because I am very eager to join my new job but I am finding the environment very frustrating and choking to be honest and this is not necessarily due to the fault of anyone - things just automatically would play themselves out this way.<br /><br />The reasons for my frustration are straightforward - the very same people who would go out of their way for knowing what i thought or felt now no longer talk to you (don't blame them, they don't need to talk to me), the work I did and which was valued uptill now (apparently i must say now) is no longer acknowledged - they don't need too.<br /><br />And partly this is my fault. I genuinely cared for my team and the work that we did. Now I am no longer part of it. In fact I am on my out to another firm (and team) which technically is a competitor. But I still want everyone to treat me as if I am still a part of my erstwhile team. That can't happen - no one has anything against me personally, this is purely professional stuff and I can appreciate their view point. It's just that I am taking time in gulping down the 'real world' consequences of my actions.<br /><br />And it's not as if people are behaving strangely at a personal level. No, at a personal level I still mingle with everyone, we go out for lunch together. Will have a farewell party and I (and them) would be sad to see me part - but that is purely at a personal level.<br /><br />I will get used to it the next time I am in this situation - but then again I won't be in that situation. I am much more likely to be on a gardening leave (yeah cutting grass on my lawn)! However at present I have to get through the last few days here, take a break and then I am live at Nariman Point!<br /><br />That's it for now...The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-85859724187436364912007-09-07T12:09:00.000+05:302007-09-07T15:13:19.060+05:30Free trade and Stephen CoveyI find it surprising that people who otherwise are in favor of free markets go in defensive mode when it comes to free trade. I have interacted with quite a few people (who are well educated) who support markets and competition but when it comes to trade some how their nationalist feelings get activated and they go into protective mode.<br /><br />In my view this arises due to a mistrust and a narrow view of trade. Somehow buying goods from a foreign country is bad but selling goods to them is good. Somehow an <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Ambani</span> making <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">crores</span> more is considered preferable to a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Walmart</span> making a few <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">crores</span> - what difference does it make to ordinary Indians on whether <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Walmart</span> makes money or Reliance or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Mittal</span> or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Tatas</span> or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Birlas</span>?<br /><br />In my view this mindset can be explained from an analogy borrowed from Stephen Covey's Seven Habits of Highly Effective People In that he had argued that humans have 3 states of being - dependence, independence and interdependence with each being a higher/more effective state of being as compared to its predecessor state.<br /><br />The fact that at a personal level, interdependence is a higher level as compared to dependence or independence is fairly trivial and easily acceptable to everyone the problem comes when you extend it to countries and trade.<br /><br />Interdependence is at the heart of free trade and most people miss this point. They look at trade purely from a narrow dependence vs independence angle (completely missing the interdependence angle). If you are not independent then you are dependent is how most people view things and hence they chase self sufficiency. Self sufficiency is a mirage and a costly one at that...<br /><br />There is no point chasing self sufficiency just for the heck of it - not even in food or oil. We should stop viewing America or Europe from the old imperialist angle and be proud of the fact that they are also dependent on us just as we are dependent on them - making us interdependent and intensify our <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">interdependedness</span>...<br /><br />That's if for now...The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-27393769128129758432007-09-07T11:16:00.000+05:302007-09-07T12:01:22.750+05:30Sports vs SoapsI have always considered myself as being a more 'intellectual' or 'forward' person due to my dislike for Soaps and preference for Sports as a choice of viewing on television. But is that really the case?<br /><br />My arguments for my views has always been that sports is more action packed, its uncertain - so more excitement, it is a test of skill of the players and so on...<br /><br />But when I think about it - ultimately both soaps and sports are designed for entertainment. Sports in fact is increasingly getting more and more entertainment oriented rather than skill oriented - 20/20 cricket for example. Skill etc is incidental.<br /><br />Further these days soaps are also full of uncertainty with the directors responding (playing) to their audience views/expectations.<br /><br />I am amazed to see how dramatic turns a particular soap takes just when everyone was expecting things to play out in a certain manner. It is this ability of the directors to change the script and respond to viewer fatigue that keeps interest in soaps going. In a lot of cases these soaps are more interesting than a boring one dayer between Australia and India wherein the result is a forgone conclusion or those boring F1 races when Schumi was winning 80% of the races from start to end.<br /><br />I believe this superiority complex that i have is just my mental construct than anything tangible. The key take away for me from this discussion is to put things in perspective and not to mentally degrade the intelligence of people who are very much into soaps vis-a-vis sports.<br /><br />That's it for now...The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-32895446445270297882007-06-24T21:18:00.000+05:302007-06-24T21:22:56.675+05:30Our educational rat race<p class="MsoNormal">This is going to be my shortest post till date.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">This is results season (class XII results are out and class X results are out in a couple of days). Every year during this period I ponder over what our education system is doing to young brains. I wrote something last year (<a href="http://1skeptic.blogspot.com/2006/06/reforming-education-system-removing.html">click here</a>)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I am reading this book ‘Emotional Intelligence’ by Daniel Goleman (just started but very interesting so far). Therein I came across this statement attributed to Howard Gardner which struck a chord with me. Mr. Gardner is (was?) a psychologist at the Harvard School of Education.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">“…We should spend less time ranking children and more time helping them to identify their natural competencies and gifts and cultivate those. There are hundreds and hundreds of ways to succeed and many many different abilities that will help you get there.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I think this is a very profound statement and one which we (especially we) need to take seriously. Given this benchmark, our education (rather exam or evaluation system) is in a very very pathetic state.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I think its time we step back and pull our future out from the rat race where every young brains go over text books 14-15 hours a day just to get 1 or 2 extra points.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I don’t see us producing too many original thinkers from in the current process. It’s high time; Our future is at stake here.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">That’s it for now…<o:p><br /></o:p></p>The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-10934701953218860172007-06-21T12:00:00.000+05:302007-06-21T12:22:47.376+05:30How we systematically encourage corruptionThis is a true account of the state of things in my native place. The Municipal corporation there has constructed a central shopping place and it leases out shops for long duration (100 years or so) for a very nominal rent (about 1% or so of true 'economic' rent). The original allotment happened a few years (maybe a few decades) back and the way the system works now is like this: A person who already has a shop there and wants to close down has to return the shop back to the municipal corporation or find some other person who wants to do business in that shop and get the lease transferred to him. Now, there is no transfer fee charged by the municipal corporation, the rent remains the same and the original owner is not 'supposed' to charge any transfer fee either.<br /><br />Now, the right to occupy that shop for a few more decades for a very notional rent is a very valuable asset that existing shopkeepers have. They are supposed to transfer that right/asset free of cost. Hello... are we living in utopia?<br /><br />Now transactions between existing and prospective shopkeepers do take place regularly. It is anybody's guess as to whether they actually happen as they are intended or there is money involved. I know for sure that money is involved. I don't think it takes too much intelligence to imagine that money is involved. And why should it not? Existing shopkeepers own a valuable right and they have every right to profit from it. I don't blame the shop keepers at all. They are acting 'rationally' in demanding a price for transferring their asset. All we are doing through well intentioned regulations is encourage corruption. People respond to incentives and if incentives are strong enough they will cheat, deceive or whatever...<br /><br />Now, if the municipal corporation needs to stop this black money transactions, it has two simple options.<br /><br />Firstly, it can start charging 'economic' rent for the shops, this will automatically reduce the transfer price of the asset.<br /><br />Secondly, it can legally allow the transfer for monetary consideration. this will bring the under the table dealings out in the open and the state can collect taxes on the capital gains that accrue to transferor shopkeepers.<br /><br />Either way, the state ends up gaining more money and there is no change to how business is conducted anyhow. So why not do it?<br /><br />Two reasons again. Firstly, vested interests. The clerk, the officer in the municipal corporation who approve of the transfer have a power and given their knowledge of money involved, it allows them to earn a commission.<br /><br />Secondly, this denial. Our political leaders suffer from this socialism ideals wherein they simply deny that 'market' would work in a certain way irrespective of rules against it if there are sufficiently strong incentives (Gambling is illegal, but we have gambling of more than billions of dollars on cricket alone).<br /><br />Don't fight markets. Regulate them and allow them to prosper. The solutions generated in a market environment are more likely to be optimal than solutions reached in parliament or legislatures (I am a die hard free marketeer, you see!).<br /><br />That's it for now...The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19943288.post-70456525966353601082007-05-06T23:12:00.000+05:302007-05-06T23:30:50.903+05:30It's the PATH that matters not the LEVELWhat a miserable time to restart this blog.<br /><br />I am very miserable these days. Haven't quite felt so miserable in quite a few years and I am wondering why.<br /><br />Analyzing my situation carefully, if I had presented to myself my current situation (at least the broad contours of it) say six months back - i wouldn't have been delighted but wouldn't have been surprised. In fact I would have said this is exactly how I expect things to pan out and would have taken the situation on balance. If so, why am I so very miserable?<br /><br />The answer lies in the path things take to reach their current level. It does not matter where things are, what matters more is how things got there. When as in my case, you get very close to realising something very important and you get pulled down at the last moment you get miserable - notwithstanding the fact that six months back you did not really expect to achieve that goal. That is not important. What is important is that you were taken up and up by the situation and then brought down. It is that emotional roller coaster that you've had makes one (and that has made me) miserable.<br /><br />To completely change field, I have often wondered why were investors so miserable when markets crashed May-June last year or late February-early March this year. If the market came down from 14000 to 10000 - so what? The market is still up more than 3 times from its low a few years back - i would have thought if you were told in say June 05 that the market would be at 10000 in June 06, most people would have gladly taken that - in fact put more money in. Then why do you hear stories of 'blood on the street' etc. Again, its the path that matters.<br /><br />So how do I get out of the misery I find myself in? Simple, by making my heart focus on the level and stop thinking about the path. Sounds simple ain't it? Yeah it does sound simple, I have been at it for the past few hours and it sounds like any other theory!<br /><br />As they say, in theory there is no difference between theory and practice, in practice - that's a whole different ball game!<br /><br />That's it for now and it's good to be back!The Onehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03191259737740479478noreply@blogger.com0