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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Growth is really scarce this year....

It is remarkable how many countries are likely to contract this year. Of the 55 countries in the table below, 38 (almost 70%) are expected to contract. And it is not just Developed countries but many EM countries and many even in our own backyard – Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines are all likely to contract this year. (Though skepticism about these estimates is justified, in all likelihood these estimates are likely to prove optimistic rather than pessimistic…

The top 3 countries in terms of maximum contraction of their economy – Iceland (9.7%), Latvia (8%) and Singapore (7.2%). The top 3 fastest growing economies this year – China (6%), India (5%), Egypt (4.9%). (Egypt is very surprising given that it is almost entirely dependent completely on Suez Canal (global trade) and Tourism (global incomes) both of which will take a beating this year.)

Source: Economist

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