Some food for thought...

Almost nobody predicted even a simple recession leave predicting a recession of this magnitude, but almost everyone is predicting a recovery beginning 2H of this year…

If I look up on Bloomberg's January economic survey, out of 60 respondents, just 11 expect US economy to contract in 3Q of this year and just one contributor expects US economy to contract in 4Q of this year (In contrast almost everyone expects US economy to contract in 1Q and 2Q of the year).

Similarly almost nobody predicted a fall in equity prices of this magnitude, but almost everyone now thinks that they have fallen so much, that we are close to the bottom if not already at the bottom. They however did not apply reverse logic. When equity markets rose sharply between 2004-2007, they did not expect equity market to fall simply because it had risen so much :)

What does that say about the skill of 'analysts' in forecasting?